Consequences, not reasons, are essential.
The original reasons for crises and disturbances are not essential from the point of view of security of supply. Essential are rather their consequences for economic core activities.

Threats are often due to international interdependence

Threats originating outside the national economy often materialize in international trade. There may be many diverse reasons for such threats. Menaces to our security policy, for example armed conflicts in our neighbouring territories that would cause physical dangers e.g. to traffic in the Baltic area, have fortunately decreased. Nevertheless, such a scenario must not be forgotten in planning our provision for emergency.

Liberalization of world trade implies both opportunities and threats

During a conflict, the structure of world trade may suffer, and considerable disturbances of access to essential goods may follow. Such a menace is particularly urgent in respect of regionally concentrated production. Oil is the classic example. Disturbances to the supply of foodstuffs may lead to similar consequences. Attempts to achieve maximum liberalization of world trade may result in a concentration of production in the most efficient areas and to affect the growth of trade. Such a development of trade policy, when successful, will create an economic interdependence that may stabilize the political situation. On the other hand, such changes may also provoke political tensions and thereby become a menace to world trade.

New types of extensive disturbances require international co-operation

Structural developments of our economy and increased mutual interdependence result in the enhanced sensitivity of our society to external disturbances. Shutdowns of electricity distribution in various parts of the world are examples of the extensive consequences of disturbances to technical facilities. The risks involved in managing networks and logistical systems require extensive analysis.

The spectrum of threats against the management of modern societies is large. It covers all scenarios from such disturbances of technical systems as those described above to extensive pandemics. Such developments also increase the opportunities of external instances to deliberately inflict damage upon society from inside. Thus, the opportunities for using terrorism as a political tool have increased.