The consequences are more important than the causes
As far as security of supply is concerned, it is more important to pay attention to the consequences of disruptions rather than their root causes.
Finland is highly dependent on global networks
Our economy is increasingly dependent on the functioning of international networks and logistics systems. The worst-case threat scenario is a situation where critical imported goods or services are temporarily unavailable.
Other major threats to society include disruptions in energy supply or data-communication networks, as well as major accidents, environmental disasters and disease outbreaks affecting the population and public health. The likelihood is now lower for threats affecting national security, such as armed conflicts in neighbouring areas that could cause a threat to traffic on the Baltic Sea. The threats to national security are nevertheless to be taken into account in preparedness planning.
The liberalisation of world trade presents both opportunities and threats
Conflicts may have an impact on world trade and cause serious disruptions in the availability of critical goods and raw materials. In many cases, the liberalisation of world trade has led to the concentration of production in the most efficient production areas and to a dependency on global logistics systems.
This development has the potential to create inter-dependencies that are beneficial to political stability. On the other hand, it may also create political tensions and threats to world trade.